Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
