Just 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while the Villa manager scolded him over missing a through-ball. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were an indicator or the reason of Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. When the in-form star curled home his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, while the positive results have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side which has just won 10 in a row, they look strangely fragile – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their talisman to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.
His opener originated from a superb shot, bent right inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more efforts and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge they must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, will not continue to blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the player he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. When the hero faced the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
